Can Strasburg's arm stand the test of time?

Nats' rookie Ks 14 in major league debut

This article originally ran June 3, 2010

By Jason Maholy

Watching the highlights of Washington Nationals’ rookie hurler Stephen Strasburg dominate the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday night, I had two immediate thoughts:

1) “Wow! This kid’s stuff is awesome.”
2) “There is no way his arm is going to hold up for more than a few seasons.”

I wish no ill will on Strasburg. He exceeded the hype that preceded his major league debut, and he appears to be the kind of talent who can resurrect a hapless franchise such as the Nationals. He also seems to be a well-adjusted, level-headed kid who isn’t buying into the hype, and I hope he has a long and illustrious career.

But I’ve seen this before. We’ve seen this before. Not a franchise record for strikeouts -- 14, by the way -- no walks and just four hits allowed in a big league debut – no one has even come close to seeing that. What we have seen are young phenoms who possess an almost supernatural ability to pitch a baseball, only to never see that talent translate into long-term success. As a Cubs’ fan, I watched the rise and fall of both Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, two guys who had the talent to be Hall of Famers, but whose careers were beset (Wood) and all but ended (Prior) by injuries. Wood and Prior were electric on the mound, and during the 2003 postseason looked to be on the verge of the kind of greatness reserved for the game’s all-time best.

That’s not how Wood's and Prior's stories ended. Both endured a plethora of physical problems that took their toll and upended Cubs’ fans dreams of watching these guys baffle hitters for years to come.

Watching Strasburg reminded me so much of Wood and Prior. From the power and velocity of his fastball, to the ridiculous movement on his curveball that seems to defy the laws of physics, to the confidence he exudes on the mound as if to say “hit it if you can…and I don’t think you can,” he has an uncanny resemblance to the once dynamic duo.

But seeing the way this guy snaps off those breaking pitches and was still throwing 99 mph in the seventh inning, I couldn’t help but begin mentally writing his MLB obit, thinking he will be another could-have-been. How can the human body stand up to the violence it requires to throw that way? We know from experience it often can’t. For pitchers who throw that hard and put that much torque on their arms, frayed rotator cuffs or Tommy John surgery are the rules rather than the exceptions. Maybe the pitch counts he’s on will help save his career, but I have an overwhelming sense of dread about all this, and I don’t even care about the Nationals.

It would be a shame, for all of us, not to see Strasburg pitch for the next 15 years, not to watch him grow as we did Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux. All I can say is good luck, Stephen.

Jason Maholy is managing editor of The Reporter. Email him at thereporteronline.net.

 

This is part of the July 29, 2010 online edition of The Reporter.

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